The 2026 MotoGP season starts its Asia Tour, and the championship hangs in a balance. Here’s what our quick pre-race thoughts are about the JapaneseGP this weekend.

The season that will be the end of an era in modern MotoGP is seemingly slotting itself into all the right angles to provide us with one of the most intense and ‘hard-to-call’ championships in recent times. This one, like many in the past, hangs in a precarious balance where just a weekend could change everything, both for the neutral fans and for the fandoms. And this makes at least the next three races- Motegi, Mandalika and the last-ever MotoGP race at the iconic Philip Island in Australia.

The JapaneseGP this week will be the 16th race of the season, after which there would only be five more races and 185 points left, considering the QatarGP would be eventually cancelled, which, due to some weird reason, is still being considered to go ahead, showing us how ill-advised and geo-politically illiterate the paddock seems to be. All that said, here are our pre-race thoughts about the JapaneseGP:

Aprilia

Constructor: P1

Points: 442 (+10)

The Aprilia RS-GP has come out this year with its gloves off and in the mood to leave painful and historic marks against the main rival Ducati and the MotoGP record books. The Factory Aprilia team should be expecting a better outing at Motegi in 2026 compared to their rather lacklustre one in 2025, not just for its own riders, but for the TrackHouse Aprilia satellite team as well.

In 2025, both Ogura and Martin were absent due to injury; Martin had suffered a DNF in the Sprint and missed the main race, while Ogura missed the weekend due to injury in his hand. Bezzecchi, the lone torchbearer of the factory team in 2025, crashed out of the sprint and took a P4 in the main race. Raul Fernandes too wasn’t at the front, with a P8 and P7 for the Sprint and GP, respectively.

The Motegi track, though, isn’t exactly the fast-flowing corner one that the Aprilia’s seem to love so much. Its stop-and-go nature suits their Italian rivals much more, and Aprilia needs to fend off the inevitable challenge from the reigning world champion, who was never taught the meaning of giving up.

Ai Ogura

Championship: P6

Points: 222 (-84)

The Japanese rider has had an incredible 2026 already; his phenomenal P4 in both the sprint and the race, returning after missing two important race weekends due to a fracture in his right thumb, already sets him well for this weekend. That said, this is probably the most important race weekend for Ogura this year, not just because it is his home race, but it is effectively his ‘first’ home GP in MotoGP since he missed 2025 due to injury.

Ogura has always been strong at Motegi whenever he has raced there, with a Moto2 race victory in 2022 followed by a couple of P2 finishes in 2023 and 2024. If the Aprilia works at the track, Ogura would be a strong contender for the race win this weekend. With the world championship win almost out of reach, a win at both the sprint and the race would be the ice-cool but ferociously competitive Ogura’s absolute focus.

Jorge Martin

Championship: P1

Points: 306 (+12)

The championship leader Jorge Martin needs to stay consistent and try to remain ahead of Marc Marquez in the sprint and the race. His sole purpose needs to be to get points away from Marc Marquez, especially at the track where the Ducati rider is expected to be extremely competitive. He is yet to gel completely with his RS-GP and had a DNF in the Sprint and missed the race due to injury in 2025.

That said, Martin has been a force to reckon with at Motegi. He has a decent record at the track, with a race win at the 2023 event, which saw a rain-shortened main race. Then in 2024, a botched qualifying saw him get a P4 in the Sprint while a great ride through the field got him a P2 in the main race. The weather might again play its part during the weekend and, as already said, Martin needs to be ahead of his closest rival, which is a lot easier to say than to do.

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Marc Marquez

Championship: P2

Points: 294 (-12)

Marc Marquez had a historic JapaneseGP in 2025 where he clinched his 7th MotoGP World Title and a staggering 9th overall. With this year’s championship being one of the closest in recent years, the man with only one and a half arms remains the most feared across the field and would be out for blood, vying to snatch and rob some important points back from Martin. The good thing is, Motegi is a great track for Ducati, and even if the weather plays iffy, it will only aid his chances further.

Marco Bezzecchi

Championship: P3

Points: 264 (-42)

For Marco Bezzecchi, the JapaneseGP is probably his last chance to make a renewed challenge for this year’s title. He is already 42 points behind the leader, Martin, and 30 points behind MM93 in P2, and time is running out for him. This week he needs to claw back major points from those ahead of him. But the Aprilia has never had a podium at Motegi, and even though Michelin is bringing three tyres for this race, including the harder, heat-resistant carcass that the Aprilia loves while it’s a kryptonite for the Ducatis. However, the weather isn’t supposed to get hot enough for this tyre to be any viable option this weekend.

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Pecco Bagnaia

Championship: P9

Points: 156 (-150)

That Pecco Bagnaia would suffer this much in his Ducati side of the garage and for this excruciatingly long has been one of the most shocking and, for the most part, inexplicable things in the paddock in the last eighteen or so months. And all this weirdness took a whole new level at the 2025 JapaneseGP where the most successful Ducati rider was suddenly back to his absolute best, leaving us all scratching our heads in disbelief.

Can he repeat his feat and have another race victory added to his list before he parts his way from Ducati for good? But it’s increasingly likely he might be ending his Ducati journey, which could only be described as an anticlimax. But then, this is MotoGP and, like the late great Nicky Hayden once fittingly said, ‘That’s why line up on a Sunday!’

Cheers. Rdie Safe!

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